Summary:

On 16 November 2023, the Ministry of the Interior announced that an individual had been arrested on charges of planning a terrorist attack in an unspecified European country, according to multiple local media outlets.

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The suspect was reported to claim loyalty to the Islamic State (IS) and had expressed support for specific terrorist attacks on social media.  

The suspect had also attempted to travel to a conflict zone, presumably to join IS operations there. After failing to travel abroad, the suspect maintained communication with foreign terrorist elements. 

Outlook: 

The arrest comes on the heels of the escape of five convicted terrorists from a Tunisian prison and the murder of two Swedish citizens in Brussels by a convicted Tunisian terrorist who escaped prison and irregularly migrated to Europe. Additionally, countries such as the US raised concerns globally about the increased risk of terrorist attacks as the conflict in Israel/Palestine continues. 

Radicalization toward violence remains a real threat that is growing as Tunisia’s younger population struggle against unemployment and rising prices. 

According to one UN report, there are five broad categories of drivers that, if present, can be “conducive to violent extremism.” Depending on their situation and perspective, many Tunisians could argue they face 3-4 of these drivers if not all 5:   

• Lack of socio-economic opportunities;   
• Marginalization and discrimination;   
• Poor governance, violations of human rights and the rule of law;   
• Prolonged and unresolved conflicts, and;   
• Radicalization in prisons.   

As many of Tunisia’s challenges go unaddressed, our team is continuing to monitor the environment for indicators that the terrorism risk is rising. 

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