Summary:

On 10 August 2024, the Independent High Authority for Elections (ISIE) announced that three of 17 candidates that submitted their candidacy for presidency were approved to continue their bids for election. 

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The three candidates officially approved to run in the October presidential election included: 

• President Kais Saied who will be running for re-election 

• Zouhair Maghzaoui, who leads the Echaab political party 

• Ayachi Zammel, who leads the Azimoun political party 

The ISIE clarified that the 14 candidates that were not approved all lacked the required number of signatures to move their candidacy forward. 

Meanwhile, outspoken political opponent and critic of President Saied, Abir Moussi, was sentenced to two years in prison after a lengthy investigation following her arrest in late 2023. While the conviction would appear to end her plans to run in the upcoming elections, her legal team has indicated she plans to continue her presidential bid. 

Outlook: 

President Saied has been broadly criticized for what many have described as efforts to block, silence, and intimidate his potential political opponents primarily through the court system.  

While the legal cases against opposition figures appear to have varying degrees of merit, the field has successfully been narrowed to a set of candidates that can provide little meaningful challenge to President Saied. 

While Maghzoui and Zammel disagree with and have criticized the President’s agenda, neither provide a compelling and widely recognizable alternative to President Saied that would attract voters in numbers significant enough to change the results of the upcoming election. 

With the field of candidates set, President Saied is well positioned to secure re-election in early October. 

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