Summary:

On 11 October 2024, the Independent Higher Authority for Elections (ISIE) approved the results of the presidential elections held on 6 October, as no official appeals were filed. 

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SIE reported that President Kais Saied won 90.69% of the votes, Ayachi Zammel won 7.35%, and Zouheir Maghzaoui took home 1.97% of the total votes. Saied obtained 2,438,954 votes with Mr. Zammel receiving 197,551 votes. 

Voter participation was approximately 28% according to preliminary results. This is the lowest voter participation rate recorded in a Tunisian presidential election since the 2011 revolution. 

Sixty-five percent of registered voters who participated in the elections were between the ages of 36 and 60 while the category of youth voters between the ages of 18 and 36 largely abstained from voting with only 6% participating. 

President Saied was congratulated by Algerian President, Abdelmajid Tebboune. Iraqi President, Abdel Latif Jamal Rachid, and his Mauritanian counterpart, Mohamed Ould Cheikh El-Ghazouani. The Presidents of the United Arab Emirates, Mohammed ben Zayed Al Nahyane, and of China, Xi Jinping, also sent messages of congratulations. 

Meanwhile, no Western leaders congratulated President Saied for his re-election. The EU’s statement only noted the result of the presidential elections, the participation rate of 28.9%, and the election process irregularities. 

Outlook: 

The elections results point to the significant popular support garnered by the sitting President, especially among older voters. The disengagement of younger voters amidst the fracturing of the opposition prevented any single challenger from making a compelling case to the electorate. This effort was further complicated by the various legal cases targeting opposition candidates and officials that have drawn significant criticism of the electoral process as a whole. 

The election results are likely to reinforce the President’s restrictive political measures against organizations and actors which the current administration categorizes as traitors or as threats to national security. 

While maintaining cooperation in economic and security policies, it appears that Western leaders are unwilling to show signs of political support for President Saied to avoid being criticized by opposing factions in Tunisia and human rights activists in Europe. 

With the opposition fractured and Western neighbors largely choosing silence on political questions, President Saied will likely face no serious challenge despite continuing protests and possible strikes.

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