Summary:

On 11 November 2024, the Chadian army published a communique stating that it led an attack on a Boko Haram faction in the Lake Chad region resulting in 96 terrorists killed, while 15 Chadian soldiers dead and 32 others were wounded during the operation.  

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The attack comes as a retaliatory strike following an attack conducted by Boko Haram fighters on 28 October which resulted in 40 deaths and 20 wounded. The 28 October attack led the Chadian government to call for more international assistance in combating terrorism, criticizing the slow reaction to the attack from United Nations-supported Multinational Joint Task Force of the Lake Chad Basin Commission. 

The attack prompted observers to raise the alarm regarding the potential for terrorist groups to operate near the Libyan border with Chad. These warnings come as Bokom Haram has perpetrated numerous attacks across the Sahel region in recent months, expanding the group’s sphere of influence.  

Outlook: 

The recent terrorist attacks in the Sahel threaten the security and stability of these countries as they not only result in many victims but also can lead to local protests. 

Furthermore, these attacks and the growing influence and operational reach of Bokom Haram could create security challenges in North African countries, including Libya, Tunisia, and Algeria. As instability in difficult-to-govern spaces in the Sahel create space for terrorist groups to influence, train, and conduct attacks, the risk that this activity pushes to and across North African borders continues to rise. 

These attacks also showcase a deficiency in regional security cooperation as neither the UN-supported task forces, nor the newly established Alliance of Sahel States (AoSS) are managing to contain jihadists whose influence is increasing near North African borders. 

Dormant terrorist groups in North Africa could be inspired by the recent attacks and may seek cooperation with terrorists from the Sahel if there is a perceived alignment of strategic objectives and local incentives.  

Additionally, terrorist attacks are likely to lead to more internal displacement as well as migration flows to the north as many civilians continue to flee the insecurity. 

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