Summary:

In late December 2024, a report from the Telegraph revealed a Chinese plan to smuggle military drones to Khalifa Haftar-aligned forces in eastern Libya disguised as COVID-19-related aid in an effort to evade a UN arms embargo. 

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The $1 billion deal included delivering 92 armed drones from China in exchange for crude oil. 

The Telegraph report states that China used a network of shell companies registered in the UK, Egypt, and Tunisia to make the transactions. 

Previously, in June, Italian authorities cooperated with US intelligence agencies to seize two Chinese military drones enroute to Libya disguised as wind turbine equipment.  

In 2019, China was also called on by a prior Tripoli-based government to investigate the use of Chinese Wing Loong II drones by Haftar’s army, alleging the systems were used to conduct strikes in Tripoli.  

Outlook: 

While violating a UN arms embargo in Libya, Chinese weapons smuggling to Haftar’s forces highlights China’s intention to pursue an expanded foothold in Africa by aiding Haftar’s forces in ending the ongoing conflict between Libya’s rival governments. 

The new revelations are likely to undermine Chinese calls for a political resolution to the Libyan conflict. The east-based government is likely to face more pressure to end arms deals as recent reports show increasing Russian equipment coming to Libya from Syria. 

Continued violations of the arms embargo by the east-based government will also perpetuate an arms race with Tripoli, which is looking to Turkey for military support to counter-balance Haftar’s forces. This spiral of escalation and armament will likely lead to additional violence in Libya that impacts civilian populations and damages infrastructure. 

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