Summary:

An April 2025 report issued by the National Observatory of Energy and Mines indicated that the deficit in the energy trade balance at the end of February 2025 showed an increase of 10% compared to the end of February 2024.  

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Over the same period, exports of energy products recorded a decrease in value of 29%, whereas the value of imported energy products increased by 1%. 

The Observatory indicated that Tunisia’s national oil production decreased by 9% over the same period. 

The deficit in energy trade is one factor in the increase of Tunisia’s trade balance by 66.8%, which was reported by the National Institute of Statistics (INS). 

Meanwhile the National Observatory of Agriculture (ONAGRI) announced that the food trade balance surplus dropped to 614.8 million dinars during the first quarter of 2025 against a surplus of 1115.5 million dinars during the same period of the previous year, thus recording a coverage rate of 134.7% at the end of March 2025 against 161.6% at the end of March 2024. 

The drop observed is mainly the result of the decrease in exports of olive oil (-23.3%), dates (-18.7%) and fish products (-31.6%), despite the offsetting decrease in imports of cereals (-18.3%), sugar (-33.4%) and vegetable oils (-50.6%). 

Outlook: 

The widening trade deficit points to persistent challenges facing the Tunisian economy and policy makers as domestic production and distribution challenges put pressure on government-subsidized imports to meet domestic demand. 

Labor disputes and strikes, as well as technical problems, have hindered the resumption of production at oil wells which will force Tunisia into greater reliance on Algeria to meet its energy needs.  

Tunisia’s competitiveness with other exporters of olive oil is likely to be impacted by the reduction in exports, in addition to corruption claims which have rocked the industry in recent months.  

The trade deficit is likely to continue draining foreign currency reserves, putting more pressure on the tourism sector and on Tunisians abroad to invest in Tunisia to maintain the foreign currency supply. 

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