Summary:

On 12 February 2025, senior Libyan minister of the Tripoli government, Adel Juma, survived an assassination attempt after an armed group targeted his vehicle with firearms. 

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The Tripoli government condemned the assassination attempt, expressing concern about the act of violence and announced the opening of an investigation to identify those responsible. Tripoli also confirmed the Minister’s health was stable after undergoing surgery. 

The incident occurred as operations were launched by Tripoli’s forces to curb organized smugglers and militias in the cities of Zouara and Mizdah. The Tripoli government claimed that it was not known which group had conducted the attack. 

Meanwhile, armed fighting erupted in the Gatroon area of southern Libya, between a battalion affiliated with Saddam Haftar from the east-based government army and factions affiliated with the dissolved 128th brigade.  

The clashes followed an operation led by the Libyan National Army to dismantle the 128th brigade after the group refused to hand over weapons and its headquarters in the Al-Bakhi region south of Gatroon.  

In the meantime, the east-based government issued a statement to condemn attacks by militia groups in Tripoli targeting the National Oil Corporation (NOC) and denounced continued threats and extortion against the NOC officials.  

Outlook: 

The latest violence in Libya indicates a growing security risk resulting from tensions between armed groups affiliated with the two rival governments as the latter seek to disarm groups in their territory and exert greater control. 

The disarmament of these groups is one of the tenants of the agreements reached by the 5+5 joint committee of the governments of Tripoli and Benghazi. However, militias retain the capacity to retaliate and threaten strategic sectors in Libya. 

Tripoli’s struggle to control militias in western Libya is likely to continue being a point of criticism from Benghazi, risking escalation of the already heightened tensions between the two governments.  

Armed violence and a political standoff risk weakening negotiations and efforts led by the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) towards organizing elections and unifying the country. 

Additionally, the recent violence signals instability in the business climate which may harm efforts to maintain recent cooperation agreements with international partners and investors who will be concerned about the ability of their government partners to ensure operational security, particularly in the oil and gas sector.

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