Summary:

On 11 June 2023, several European leaders traveled to Tunis to announce a series of aid packages and assistance programs designed to address surging irregular migration and Tunisia’s vulnerable financial situation. The group ultimately promised aid totaling over $1 billion to help Tunisia navigate its overlapping crises.

The European delegation included European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, and Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni. Meloni had visited Tunis earlier in the week, meeting with President Kais Saied and Prime Minister Najla Bouden.

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Von der Leyen affirmed in a joint statement on 11 June that the group of European leaders had come to Tunis together as “Team Europe” to show the strength and importance of the EU’s partnership with Tunisia.

Following the group’s meetings in Tunis, the European Commission released several statements, including a “Comprehensive Partnership” document. That document included:

• €900 million of “macro-financial assistance” seemingly contingent upon Tunisia securing the previously agreed upon $1.9 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan
• €150 million in “bilateral assistance for 2023” also seemingly tied to a “reform agenda”
• €105 million in financial support countering irregular migration
• ~€80 million for what the European Commission has called “people-to-people contacts” that includes focus on training and green energy exploitation
• Promises for deeper partnership on a number of economic and social issues

Outlook:  

The EU continues to walk a careful line between usurping the role of the IMF deal in Tunisia’s future and pushing for more immediate action to address Tunisia’s economic challenges that are feeding migration.

The financial assistance promised in Tunis seems to fall short of Italian calls for immediate calls for a bailout. However, the presence of Meloni alongside Italy’s EU partners appears to communicate a united front that still views an IMF loan and the related reforms as an essential building block for Tunisia’s economic future.

The EU promises for financial aid are likely meant to soften the perceived blow of Tunisia implementing the reforms previously agreed upon with the IMF. The reforms – characterized as “foreign diktats” by President Kais Saied and destabilizing austerity measures by the country’s unions – continue to be the sticking point for Tunisia’s government that has continued to search for alternatives rather than embrace a challenging process of economic reform.

The announcements from the EU seem to put the IMF loan negotiation process back in the spotlight. The EU leaders took steps to include President Kais Saied as a visible partner in their visit and announcements, but his planned next steps with the IMF remain unknown.

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