Summary:

Last week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) confirmed that an official visit to Tunisia had been delayed at the request of the Tunisian government. 

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The visit was announced during the World Bank and IMF annual meetings in Morocco held in October 2023, with both IMF and Tunisian officials confirming the plans. 

Hopes for the long-delayed $1.8 billion loan deal were revived during the Morocco meetings, with then Economic Minister Samir Saied reflecting Tunisia’s need to pursue the loan in order to salvage the economy. However, Saied was fired shortly after returning from Morocco. 

Outlook: 

Heading into 2024, the current Tunisian government is in a precarious political position with the economy faltering and a presidential election approaching. 

Any additional discussions with the IMF will likely focus on the economic reforms tied to the loan deal which, to this point, President Kais Saied has made clear that he cannot accept, assessing that the austerity measures would lead to social unrest in Tunisia. 

While discussions could become feasible for the current administration following the elections, further entertainment of austerity measures at present could stir up the wrath of the country’s influential labor unions and potentially complicate President Saied’s plans for re-election. 

The IMF loan deal is likely to continue to see delays until the country is in a less politically dynamic season. 

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