Summary:

On 30 April 2024, the head of the National Salvation Front (NSF) Ahmed Nejib Chebbi announced that the opposition bloc would boycott the upcoming presidential elections unless certain conditions met. 

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Chebbi outlined the following three conditions: 

1. Allow the Ennahdha political party to re-open its headquarters which was closed by security forces in 2023 

1. Guarantees of the independence of the Independent High Commission for Elections (ISIE) which critics contend has had its objectivity eroded incrementally 

1. The release of what the NSF refers to as “political prisoners” including Ennahdha leader Rached Ghannouchi 

Chebbi further indicated that the NSF would not nominate or endorse a candidate as it did not intend to participate in the “charade” of an election. 

The NSF has leveraged election boycotts in multiple recent elections, including the 2022 parliamentary elections and the more recent local council elections in late 2023. Both elections had record-low voter turnouts that hovered near 10%. 

Outlook: 

While it remains difficult to assess the influence of the NSF on the broader electorate, their prior boycotts appeared effective at further discouraging political engagement which already remains notably low across Tunisia. 

With President Saied likely eager to increase turnout in order to validate his re-election in the eyes of both domestic and international audiences, the NSF boycott sets the stage for another low turnout that will fail provide that validation. 

President Saied has shown little interest in engaging the NSF to this point and is unlikely to entertain the demands as presented by the opposition bloc. President Saied is more likely to accept low voter engagement in the upcoming elections and secure a victory rather than compromise on issues such as the imprisonment of Rached Ghannouchi, which continue to play positively with his voter base. 

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