Summary:

Last week, the National Institute of Statistics (INS) released financial data and analysis indicating that GDP growth for 2023 was 0.4%. 

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This performance fell far short of the 0.9% estimated by the 2023 finance law, which was revised down from 1.8%. 

The INS report indicated that, excluding the agricultural sector, GDP grew at 1.6%. 

GDP growth not only fell short of Tunisian government estimates but also those of the World Bank, which estimated 2023 GDP growth would be around 1.2% after revising the estimate downward significantly based on mid-year indicators. 2023 growth fell even further short of European Bank for Development and Reconstruction estimates, which forecasted growth of as much as 2.5% in 2023. 

Tunisia’s 2024 finance law estimated 2.1% growth for 2024, matching an estimate by the African Development Bank.  

Outlook: 

GDP growth estimates of 2.1% risk being overly ambitious similar to those put forward for the 2023 budget. Tunisia’s 2024 budget already has major shortfalls that assume the identification of additional forms of financing, and economic underperformance could exacerbate those already significant needs. 

With current dam fill rates and rainfall indicating that the agricultural sector could struggle again with drought conditions, the economy faces additional challenges in 2024 that could see growth fall below the official estimates. 

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