Summary:

On 29 June 2025, the Government of National Stability (GNS) in eastern Libya rejected Greek claims questioning the legality of the Turkish-Libyan maritime borders delimitation deal that the Libyan parliament is preparing to ratify. 

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The GNS warned of the consequences of escalation by Greece and stressed preparedness to take appropriate measures to protect its national security and strategic interests. 

The National Oil Corporation (NOC) also issued a statement defending Libya’s sovereign rights to explore and develop its natural resources, including hydrocarbon resources in the Eastern Mediterranean. 

These statements come in response to the EU Leaders’ Summit conclusions and to Athens’ statements depicting the Turkey-Libya agreement as infringing upon existing boundaries and not complying with the Law of the Sea. 

Turkey, who on 26 June signed deals with the NOC to explore energy in four offshore areas, also rejected EU and Greek claims, stating that they are maximalist and violate both international law and the principle of equity. 

Previously, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in the Tripoli Government summoned Greece’s ambassador to contest its unilateral decision to launch an international tender for oil and gas exploration in maritime areas south of the island of Crete.  

Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis later announced the deployment of warships in response. 

Outlook: 

The current tensions over maritime borders and energy exploration between Libya, Turkey, and Greece is likely to discourage international energy firms from active engagement on projects in these regions due to the geopolitical risk involved.  

Turkey will likely continue working through its state-owned energy firms to position itself advantageously to work with Libya on exploiting the fields in questions while Greece continues to partner with foreign firms in joint ventures.  

The EU and Middle Eastern states like Egypt are likely to be involved in settling the conflict either through diplomacy or by supporting Greece to counterbalance Turkey’s power.  

Libyan rival governments are likely to seek to preserve the deals with Turkey to increase energy production with offshore sites while gaining a position to take part in eventual interregional energy projects like the East-Med Pipeline. 

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