Summary:

On 12 February 2025, the National Institute for Statistics published a report showing the trade deficit tripled from -577.6 million dinars in January 2024 to -1,765.5 million dinars in January 2025. 

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The report attributes the deficit to a decrease in exports of refined energy products, highlighting that the energy sector alone contributed 1,078.4 million dinars to the trade deficit. 

The value of exports of olive oil also decreased from 607,8 million dinars to 518.4, leading to a -9,7% overall drop in food exports. 

While exports decreased by -2,4%, imports rocketed by +18.6% with an increase of +37.9% of imported food products, +24% of energy products, +14.1% of capital goods, and+13.2% of raw materials. 

Only phosphate and textile exports rose, growing by +20.5% and by +2.5% respectively. 

Tunisia’s trade balance across 2024 saw a surplus with France, Italy, Germany, Libya and Morocco. However, it was at a deficit with Algeria, Turkey, China, Russia, India and Greece, among others.  

Outlook: 

The trade imbalance from 2024 is one of the concrete consequences of disruptions in energy production due to recurrent strikes and technical problems at production sites.  

The trade deficit is likely to remain at a similar level as exploration and exploitation licenses in Tunisia decreased while the demand for energy rose. Renewable energy projects are unlikely to impact the energy deficit until the beginning of exploitation in 2027, making short-term solutions from this sector unavailable.  

The strikes in phosphate production and transport sites also impacted phosphate exports.  

The olive oil crisis that followed a delay in domestic distribution and exports also resulted in drops in exports. Attempts to respond to essential goods shortages in the market led to increased dependence on foreign providers for food products.  

Many observers also pointed to the lack of exports deals with other African countries, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, that could be resolved as a means to improve the trade balance. 

The trade deficit is likely to continue draining foreign currency reserves, putting more pressure on the tourism sector and efforts to attract Tunisians abroad to invest in Tunisia in order to maintain the foreign currency supply. 

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