Summary:

 On 19 December 2024, Prime Minister of the Government of National Unity in Tripoli, Abdelhamid Debaibah, commented on recent reports indicating Russia’s transfer of military assets from Syria to Libya by affirming that Libya will not accept interventions by foreign militaries. 

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The Libyan PM stated that “Russia is a great power and is trying to have influence in Africa,” and that “Tripoli will communicate with international parties on this issue.”  

Debaibah’s statements follow recent reports indicating that Russia transferred Syrian soldiers and officers, as well as military equipment to Libya after the fall of Bashar El-Assad in Syria on 8 December. 

A Wall Street Journal report indicated that S-400 and S-300 Russian air defense systems, helicopters, vehicles, and Russian personnel were moved to Libya by Russian cargo planes.  

Russia has been backing General Khalifa Haftar, leader of the Libyan National Army, in his standoff against Tripoli’s government by providing personnel and military assets in different positions in eastern Libya, including in Tobruk, al-Khadim and al-Jufra air bases.  

Outlook: 

Russia’s retreat from Syria and its transfer of military assets to Libya are likely to raise tensions between the two competing Libyan governments. An influx of assets and subsequent fears of further losses could see Russia significantly bolster its support to Haftar. If emboldened, Haftar could risk more aggressive encroachments of the Tripoli-based government’s territory and assets. 

While Tripoli’s PM is denouncing Russian movements into Libya in the name of protecting national sovereignty it is especially the change in the military balance in favor of Haftar’s army that is likely most concerning in Tripoli. 

The Haftar government in eastern Libya is an essential ally for Russia as it offers Russia a military transit point in the Mediterranean. This is even more important strategically for Russia after the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria where the new leadership may prevent Russia from controlling the Tartus port and the Hmeimim air base.  

Tripoli’s government is likely to mobilize international actors to put pressure on Russia to withdraw its forces and even seek support from its Turkish ally and Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham to counterbalance Haftar as previous PM Fayez Saraj did in 2020. 

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