Summary:

In recent days, ​​bakeries across Tunisia experienced bread shortages as the durum wheat supply chain remains unreliable.

Many bakeries faced long lines as they were unable to meet customer demands for bread and some had to close.

Supplies of durum wheat, which is used to make the baguettes consumed daily by many Tunisian households, have been less reliable since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. This event disrupted global wheat supply chains, which have historically depended heavily on Russian and Ukrainian farmers to supply the necessary volumes.

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Adding to this challenge has been Tunisia’s financial troubles which have made financing the government wheat purchases more difficult as creditors have grown skeptical of the country’s ability to repay loans. Despite recent aid efforts by the US and World Bank, which included the facilitation of the import of durum wheat, supply chains remain unreliable, a reality increasingly being felt on the Tunisian street.

The Minister of Commerce, Kalthoum ben Rejeb explained that the supply shortage problem occurred during the weekend of 20 and 21 May in multiple locations. She sought to reassure consumers that flour would be available to produce the typical supply of bread in the coming days and looking ahead to the summer.

In a 22 May statement, Rejeb sought to reassure Tunisians that “soft wheat used in the bread industry is available, but the problem lies in the pressure on flour due to the disruption of durum wheat supplies, which led to the absence of bread in several regions of the country.”

President Kais Saied said in this regard, during his meeting with the Minister of Commerce on 20 May, that “the shortage of products is part of the discontentment of the situation for well-known political reasons, which requires educating people,” and that “the lack of bread and basic products is a red line.”

Outlook:  

Intermittent bread shortages are likely to continue as global supply chains and Tunisia’s financial situation remain unsteady.

The potential for bakery strikes and closures will likely continue to rise until a more stable supply chain can be established. Supply chains are unlikely to be shored up without Tunisia taking on a major financial bailout package from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or another loan source, the former continuing to be delayed and the latter appearing unlikely at present.

The oft-referenced Bread Riots during the winter of 1983-1984 cast a long shadow over the issue of bread supplies. While Tunisians have quietly fared many crises, both political and economic, bread shortages may create seriously backlash in the form of protests and demonstrations.

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