Summary:

On 7 October 2025, the World Bank released its Middle East and North Africa Economic Outlook, projecting Tunisia’s GDP growth at 2.6% in 2025, before slowing slightly to 2.4% in 2026–2027.  

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According to the report, the improvement in 2025 is expected to stem primarily from strong agricultural performance, notably in olive oil and grain production, while the subsequent moderation reflects tight financing conditions, persistent market access barriers, and the slow pace of structural reforms. 

Additionally, the World Bank report forecasts a budget deficit of 5.7% of GDP in 2025, narrowing to 4.4% by 2027 through gradual fiscal restraint. The current account deficit is projected to widen from 2.7% to 3.1% of GDP, as external balances remain under pressure despite gains from tourism and lower oil prices. 

Outlook: 

The World Bank report signals a modest recovery in Tunisia, supported mainly by agriculture, alongside signs of improving fiscal discipline.  

However, growth is likely to remain constrained without structural reforms to enhance market access, diversify the economy, and strengthen fiscal and external resilience, particularly given the rising domestic debt that is putting pressure on banking liquidity and limiting credit availability for projects and investment.  

Without improved growth and fiscal management, businesses and investors may continue to face uncertainty, while successful reforms could stabilize the economy and attract sustainable investment. 

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